My eleven year old wakes up early and likes to go on woods-walks with me most days before school. Today, we figured out when choosing between two potential futures, decisions with action are more important than even the best predictions. Here’s how we ‘proved’ it (it’s fun being the mom of a budding engineer).
My son was weighing his options about what he should do after an in-school graduation ceremony: leave school for the day to spend afternoon with his dad, or stay in school with a small, possibly fun group of kids until regular dismissal.
My son didn’t truly know who which kids would stay and which would go (maybe loads of girls would stay – “ick!”). Also he didn’t know if his dad would take the entire day out of work and be available all afternoon. Rather scratchy diagram below shows the two potential futures as bubbles, representing his choice. My son was a little stuck in the dilemma, but eventually realized he could make happiness simply by choosing first (which simultaneously removed the downside of regret). But let’s investigate.
Yeah, I made a sketchy (at best) diagram…
There was lots of past data to suggest what might happen with spending the afternoon at school (right side of diagram): which kids would stay and what they’d do. He felt he was on track for a 70% likelihood of happiness there. To keep it interesting, there was also an unpredictable amount of potential happiness (it could reach 100%).
On the left side, taking the whole afternoon afternoon with his Dad would mean 100% realization of happiness, no matter what they did. But, the likelihood of this option happening was only 30%.
Without a front-loaded decision, my son had only 30% certainly his dad would take the afternoon off. And if he didn’t communicate with his dad that was what he wanted, those odds wouldn’t improve. His dad would not take the whole day off if his son could stay at school.
He kept speculating, until he realized these futures were not equal – that one, the choice where he put his own happiness first and make a front-loaded decision had the guarantee of a happy outcome. That was to decide to leave school after the ceremony and ask his Dad to take the day out of work. Knowing my husband, if he knew how much his boy wanted to spend the afternoon with him, he’d make it happen, then the happiness outcome would rise to 100%* with the added bonus of learning how to make reasoned antonymous choices.
I’m realizing too that wondering “which would be better” among potential options is only a guarantee for endless speculation, and not a guarantee of happiness, no matter how much we are conditioned otherwise. Projecting possible futures, without decision, is a pro/con paper at best. But deciding begets early action, or in my son’s case, early communication. Deciding what you want, coupled with sharing your choice, can help you make your desires come to pass at a higher rate.
Maybe this is because you and your desires are equally important as the unmoored outcomes you perceive you have in life.
Do you have any big decisions looming? What’s the most rational way you can compare your potential outcomes, and what will you choose?
* In the very odd circumstance that his dad couldn’t get the afternoon off, the ‘fallback’ position of staying at school was still good and full of exciting possibility. This fallback also meant that he would have no dilemmas or regret because he did try to make his dream come true. The 70-100% chance of fun of this outcome was possible ONLY if he first chose his first choice and took action on it. If my son chose neither, the default would happen and he likely would have only 70% fun plus regret that he could have had 100% if he had spoken up.